Royal LePage’s latest market forecast paints a vivid picture of Canada’s real estate landscape, predicting a significant 9% year-over-year increase in home prices by the fourth quarter of 2024. This upward revision stems from a robust first quarter, with strong price appreciation expected through the second and third quarters before tapering off towards year-end, aligning with seasonal trends.
The forecast highlights notable upgrades in major markets, particularly the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where prices are anticipated to surge by 10%, surpassing the national average. Montreal follows closely behind with an 8.5% projected increase, while Calgary, Quebec City, and Greater Vancouver are forecasted to experience respective jumps of 8%, 8%, and 5.5%.
Royal LePage President Phil Soper attributes the current modest price rises to consumers, particularly first-time buyers, adapting to higher borrowing costs. However, he anticipates a steeper appreciation curve once the central bank enacts anticipated rate cuts, drawing in rate-focused buyers.
While easing rates will influence price upticks, the fundamental driver remains the severe housing shortage across the country. Soper warns of an intensifying seller’s market, foretelling a busy spring and fall for Canadian buyers and sellers alike.
Looking ahead, Royal LePage’s forecast suggests that by the end of 2026, the majority of mortgages will have transitioned into an elevated borrowing rate environment. Yet, this is not expected to significantly dampen the housing market’s resilience. Soper points to Canadians meeting their mortgage obligations amid record-low default rates and income growth offsetting increased mortgage costs. However, he anticipates a pullback in discretionary spending as individuals prioritize maintaining homeownership.
In summary, Royal LePage’s forecast outlines a dynamic Canadian housing market characterized by soaring prices, driven by a combination of factors including adapting consumer behavior, impending rate cuts, and the persistent housing shortage. Despite looming challenges, the market remains robust, with buyers and sellers navigating towards a seller-centric environment amidst projections of continued price appreciation.
In February 2024, Metro Vancouver’s housing market saw a notable increase in new listings, alleviating concerns about potential overheating. According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), new listings rose by 31% year-over-year, reaching 4,560 properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). This surge in listings provided buyers with more choices as the spring and summer markets approached.
Residential sales in the region totaled 2,070 in February 2024, marking a 13.5% increase from the previous year. However, this figure was 23.3% below the 10-year seasonal average, highlighting a slower pace compared to historical trends. GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, Andrew Lis, expressed relief at the increase in new listings, stating that it would ease the pressure that had built up in January.
Despite the rise in listings, the total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver increased by 16.3% compared to February 2023, totaling 9,634 properties. This was 3% above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2024 stood at 22.4%, with varying ratios for detached homes (16%), attached homes (27.9%), and apartments (25.9%).
Lis noted that the increase in new listings did not sufficiently counterbalance the pace of sales to prevent price acceleration. Consequently, the market remained in sellers’ territory, contributing to modest price growth across all segments. However, benchmark prices were still below the peak observed in the spring of 2022, before the full impact of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle was internalized.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,183,300, reflecting a 4.5% increase from February 2023. While there was modest price growth across all property types, benchmark prices remained below the 2022 peak.
Detached home sales increased by 8.3%, reaching 560 in February 2024, with a benchmark price of $1,972,400. Apartment home sales saw a 17.7% increase, totaling 1,092, with a benchmark price of $770,700. Attached home sales reached 403, marking a 10.1% increase, with a townhouse benchmark price of $1,094,700. Overall, the market demonstrated resilience, showing both increased supply and demand, with moderate price growth in February 2024.
New Home Flipping Tax to Hit B.C. Property Sales: Here’s What You Should Know
Premier David Eby has set his sights on speculators, and with the unveiling of the 2024 budget, his government has introduced the “BC Home Flipping Tax” aimed at curbing speculative activity in the housing market.
Effective January 1, the new tax mandates that any profits accrued from the sale of a residential property within two years of its purchase will be subject to taxation, albeit with certain exceptions.
Outlined in the forthcoming legislation to be passed during the spring session, the tax will follow a progressive scale: 20 percent on profits from homes sold within the initial year, gradually decreasing to 10 percent if sold within 18 months, and ultimately dropping to zero after two years of ownership.
According to the Ministry of Finance, this tax measure is anticipated to generate approximately $43 million in annual tax revenue.
“The tax will be applicable to income derived from the sale of properties with a housing unit and those zoned for residential use. It will also extend to income generated from the assignment of contracts related to the purchase of these properties,” states the Budget and Fiscal Plan.
However, exemptions will be granted for individuals selling their primary residence within two years of acquisition, with a maximum exclusion of $20,000 when calculating taxable income.
Exceptions for circumstances such as divorce, death, illness, and work-related relocation will also be considered to waive the tax liability. Details regarding the appeals process and required documentation are yet to be finalized, with tax administrators expected to develop forms and guidelines between now and January.
The revenue collected from this tax will be earmarked for the construction of new affordable housing units across the province, aligning with the government’s objective to bolster housing supply.
Set to take effect on January 1, 2025, the tax will be applicable to properties sold after this date, regardless of the purchase date.
In addition to the new tax, the B.C. budget confirms substantial investments in housing initiatives, including programs like BC Builds. The budget also offers a comprehensive analysis of the housing market’s current state and future trajectory.
Despite challenges such as declining building permits, growing unsold inventory in certain regions, and inter-provincial migration losses, the ministry anticipates a rebound in home sales activity in 2024. Prices are projected to increase by an average of 2.3 percent in the current year and 2.9 percent in 2025, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the real estate market.
The ambitious high-rise project in Vancouver’s West End is facing a multitude of challenges, as developers find themselves in receivership, according to recent filings in the Supreme Court of British Columbia. The venture, located at the intersection of 830-850 Thurlow Street and 1045 Haro Street, was designed to feature a striking 55-storey strata condo tower alongside a 15-storey counterpart, comprising a total of 450 strata condominiums and 66 rental units. The project, as outlined on its website, also included provisions for 42,000 sq. ft of retail space, a 49-space childcare facility, and a brand-new public plaza, making it a significant addition to Vancouver’s skyline.
However, the grand vision has hit a roadblock, with the Bank of Montreal, a secured creditor of the project, submitting a receivership application citing an outstanding debt of $82.2 million in principal and interest. The legal ownership of the development site rests with Harlow Holdings Ltd., while the beneficial ownership falls under the Haro-Thurlow Street Project Limited Partnership (HTLP), which is itself owned by various entities, including 11044227 BC Ltd. (45%), Forseed Haro Holdings Ltd. (45%), and Terrapoint Developments Ltd. (10%). Interestingly, notable Vancouver-based developer Intracorp Homes is involved in the project as the development manager but is not directly implicated in the receivership proceedings.
The roots of the financial crisis lie in the developers’ struggle to meet the City of Vancouver’s stringent requirements for the project, an issue persisting for the past five years. A Council report from June 2022 highlighted concerns about the project’s encroachment on several view cones, prompting the ongoing review of the city’s view cones policies. Despite substantial efforts, the owners failed to secure a development permit, leading to a series of negotiations with creditors, primarily the Bank of Montreal.
The owners, facing mounting challenges, negotiated multiple amendments to their credit agreement, the latest of which occurred in September 2022. This extension pushed the “outside date” for the project to August 31, 2023. However, in early 2023, the Bank of Montreal informed the owners that no further extensions would be granted, compelling them to explore a potential sale of the property.
A significant development in this saga came when CBRE was engaged to facilitate the sale, leading to the reception of six offers by May 2023. These offers, ranging from $81.5 million to $100 million, fell substantially short of the property’s acquisition cost, leading to internal tensions among stakeholders. Notably, an offer by Chard Development for $93 million was not universally accepted, with Terrapoint supporting the offer, while Forseed and 11044227 BC Ltd. rejected it.
This internal discord, coupled with the owners’ resistance to accepting a considerable loss on their investments, led to an impasse. Terrapoint, a minority stakeholder, accused the majority partners of lacking “good faith” reasons for rejecting Chard Development’s offer. In response, the majority partners claimed they were actively seeking to refinance the debt, a claim met with skepticism due to the lack of supporting evidence.
The situation worsened when the owners defaulted on their interest payment in July 2023, prompting the Bank of Montreal to demand payment of $95,520,027.39 by August 29. Despite presenting a forbearance agreement, the owners declined to sign, leading to the initiation of the receivership application by the Bank of Montreal.
In a December affidavit, Kang Yu Canning Zou, a director of the entities under the receivership application, mentioned that the owners had identified three lenders willing to provide loans for debt repayment. However, the Bank of Montreal disputed this claim, stating that no evidence of such lenders had been provided.
The financial intricacies of the project involve a monthly interest cost of $620,000, while the existing rental complex on the site generates only $175,000 in monthly income. This considerable shortfall, combined with the owners’ failure to meet their obligations, eroded the Bank of Montreal’s confidence in their commitment to debt repayment.
In the receivership application, the Bank of Montreal sought the appointment of a receiver with the mandate to arrange a prompt sale of the property. An appraisal conducted by LW Property Advisors in July 2023 pegged the property’s value at $192 million, based on its development potential. However, concerns were raised about whether lenders would recognize this valuation.
Evan Allegretto, President of Intracorp Homes, expressed pessimism about the property’s current value, suggesting it might be even lower than the $93 million offer from Chard Development. Allegretto cited factors such as higher interest rates, tightening credit, rising construction costs, and the limited pool of potential purchasers for a property of this magnitude.
The owners, seeking more time to settle their debt, engaged in another dispute with the Bank of Montreal. The court ultimately ruled in favor of appointing Deloitte as the receiver as of January 12. However, Deloitte is restrained from undertaking any sales efforts until after February 23, and approval of sale offers is prohibited until after April 26.
If a sales process is initiated, the receiver is likely to collaborate with a commercial real estate brokerage for listing and marketing the property. The subsequent offers would be scrutinized, and the selected offer would require final approval from the court, adding an additional layer of complexity to the resolution of this intricate financial and legal quagmire.
The City of Vancouver and the Canadian federal government have reached a housing deal through the Housing Accelerator Fund, aiming to construct over 40,000 homes in Vancouver within the next decade. The agreement, announced during a press conference with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, outlines plans to fast-track approximately 3,200 homes over the next three years. Trudeau emphasized the federal government’s commitment to partnering with various levels of government to expedite home construction. Housing Minister Sean Fraser stated that nearly $115 million from the Housing Accelerator Fund would be allocated to reduce barriers to housing development.
The deal aims to promote high-density housing, expedite development processes, and increase housing proximity to transit. Vancouver plans to streamline rezoning, expand affordable rental programs, and implement initiatives to enhance housing construction. Mayor Ken Sim expressed enthusiasm for the announcement, characterizing it as a collective commitment to address the housing shortage. Sim highlighted the positive impact on neighborhood vibrancy and opportunities resulting from increased housing construction.
Sim acknowledged the rapid population growth expected in the Greater Vancouver region, estimating an influx of 500,000 people by 2050. To address this growth, he emphasized the need for swift and bold action. The federal government’s $115 million investment through the Housing Accelerator Fund was deemed generous and essential to accelerating home construction. However, the announcement faced criticism from the federal Conservatives, who pointed to recent data from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation revealing a more than 20% drop in housing starts across the country in November compared to the previous month.
As of December 4, 2023, Metro Vancouver is experiencing a notable surge in housing inventory, providing home buyers with the most extensive selection since 2021. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports a 4.7% increase in residential sales for November 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, totaling 1,702 sales. While this represents a 33% decline from the 10-year seasonal average, the increase in active listings is contributing to more balanced market conditions.
Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics, notes that the growing number of active listings over recent months, coupled with the typical seasonal sales slowdown, is creating a more favorable environment for buyers. In November 2023, 3,369 properties were newly listed for sale, reflecting a 9.8% increase from the previous year.
The total number of properties listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in Metro Vancouver has reached 10,931, marking a 13.5% increase compared to November 2022. This is 3.7% above the 10-year seasonal average. The sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2023 is 16.3%, with variations by property type: 12.7% for detached homes, 19.8% for attached, and 18.2% for apartments.
Historical data analysis indicates that home prices may experience downward pressure when the sales-to-active listings ratio falls below 12% for an extended period. Conversely, sustained ratios exceeding 20% often lead to upward pressure on home prices.
Lis points out that the current market conditions, characterized by balanced supply and demand, are contributing to flatter price trends. Following a period of over 7% price increase earlier in the year, prices have seen a slight decrease since the summer. While Cyber Monday discounts may not be prevalent, prices have edged lower by a few percentage points. Moreover, with economists predicting a modest decline in mortgage rates in 2024, market conditions are considered highly favorable for buyers.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,185,100, reflecting a 4.9% increase over November 2022. However, there is a 1% decrease compared to October 2023.
Breaking down property types, detached home sales in November 2023 increased by 7%, reaching 523 sales. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,982,600, representing a 6.8% increase from November 2022 but a 0.9% decrease compared to October 2023.
Apartment home sales reached 850 in November 2023, showing a marginal 0.4% increase from November 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home is $762,700, indicating a 6.2% increase from November 2022 but a 1% decrease compared to October 2023.
Sales of attached homes totaled 316 in November 2023, marking a substantial 12.5% increase compared to November 2022. The benchmark price for a townhouse is $1,092,600, showing a 6.9% increase from November 2022 but a 0.7% decrease compared to October 2023.
In summary, Metro Vancouver’s housing market is currently characterized by increased inventory, balanced conditions, and a slight decline in prices since the summer. With favorable market conditions for buyers and anticipated declines in mortgage rates, the real estate landscape in the region appears to be offering a unique opportunity for those in the market for a new home.
In the dynamic real estate landscape of Metro Vancouver, the month of July 2023 witnessed yet another upswing in home prices across all types of properties, fuelled by a robust sales surge. This ongoing trend of price escalation is being driven by a formidable combination of vigorous sales figures and a persistently low housing inventory within the region.
According to the latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the total number of residential home sales in the area reached an impressive 2,455 in July 2023. This marked a substantial increase of 28.9 percent compared to the 1,904 sales recorded during the same period in 2022. It’s noteworthy that these figures remained about 15.6 percent below the ten-year seasonal average of 2,909 sales.
Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at REBGV, emphasized the significance of the year-over-year sales increase, even if it still lags behind the ten-year average. He explained that this substantial improvement is partly attributed to the market’s response to the previous year’s scenario when the Bank of Canada took many by surprise with a sizeable one percent increase in the policy rate. This move had momentarily chilled the market activity by catching both buyers and sellers off guard.
The supply side of the equation also saw notable developments. In July 2023, there were 4,649 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver. This figure marked a significant 17 percent increase compared to the 3,975 homes listed in July 2022, although it still remained 5.2 percent below the 10-year seasonal average of 4,902 listings.
Presently, the total number of homes listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver stands at 10,301, reflecting a four percent decrease when contrasted with the figures from July 2022 (10,734). Moreover, this number was about 14.4 percent lower than the ten-year seasonal average of 12,039 listings.
An insightful metric for evaluating the balance between supply and demand is the sales-to-active listings ratio. For July 2023, this ratio stood at 24.9 percent when considering all property types combined. However, when analyzed by property type, the ratios were 16.5 percent for detached homes, 32 percent for townhomes, and 30.6 percent for apartments. Historical analysis suggests that home prices typically experience downward pressure when the ratio remains below 12 percent consistently. Conversely, when the ratio surpasses 20 percent over several months, it tends to exert upward pressure on home prices.
One intriguing aspect of the current market environment is the contrast between the Bank of Canada’s modest rate hike of a quarter of a percent in July and the highest mortgage rates witnessed in Canada in over a decade. Despite this, sales activity managed to outpace last year’s levels, indicating not only the robust demand in the market but also buyers’ ability to adapt and qualify for higher borrowing costs.
In terms of specific property types, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,210,700. This signifies a marginal 0.5 percent increase over July 2022 and a similarly modest 0.6 percent increase when compared to June 2023.
Delving deeper, the sales of detached homes in July 2023 numbered 681, an impressive 28.7 percent upswing from the 529 detached sales recorded in July 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home reached $2,012,900, reflecting a 0.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 1.1 percent rise compared to June 2023.
Similarly, apartment home sales witnessed a significant surge, totaling 1,281 in July 2023. This marked a substantial 20.7 percent increase when compared to the 1,061 sales of July 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home climbed to $771,600, demonstrating a noteworthy 2.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.6 percent uptick from June 2023.
Attached homes, too, experienced a notable upswing in sales, with July 2023 witnessing 466 sales compared to 304 in July 2022. This surge of 53.3 percent is substantial and contributed to the benchmark price for an attached home reaching $1,104,600. This marks a 1.2 percent increase from July 2022 and a 0.5 percent rise compared to June 2023.
All in all, the real estate landscape in Metro Vancouver continues to be shaped by a dynamic interplay of strong sales activity, constrained inventory levels, and the ability of buyers to adapt to changing market conditions, including higher borrowing costs. While the ten-year average remains a reference point, the current market’s resilience underscores the enduring demand for housing in the region, driving incremental increases in property prices across various segments.
Hello and welcome back to our channel! In today’s video, we will be discussing the latest real estate trends in Metro Vancouver. According to a report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, home buyer confidence has returned, resulting in rising home prices despite a decrease in listings. Here are the five most important things you need to know from the report.
Sales are rebounding: Despite the pandemic’s effects on the economy and the previous interest rate hikes, home sales in Metro Vancouver have rebounded, increasing near levels seen last spring. In April 2023, residential home sales in the region totalled 2,741, representing a 16.5% decrease from the same period in 2022, and 15.6% below the 10-year seasonal average.
Low inventory levels are creating competitive conditions: There is a shortage of resale supply available relative to the pool of active buyers in the market, which is creating competitive conditions where almost any resurgence in demand would lead to price escalation, despite the elevated borrowing cost environment.
Prices are increasing: The MLS HPI data shows that home prices have already increased about 5% year-to-date, outpacing the forecasted 1-2% increase by year-end. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,170,700, representing a 2.4% increase compared to March 2023 and a 7.4% decrease from April 2022.
Decrease in listings: The report shows a 29.7% decrease in the number of detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in April 2023 compared to April 2022. The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,790, representing a 4.2% decrease compared to April 2022.
Sales-to-active listings ratio: The sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2023 across all detached, attached, and apartment property types is 32.7%. The ratio is 24.4% for detached homes, 40.1% for townhomes, and 37.4% for apartments. When the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, it suggests downward pressure on home prices, while a ratio surpassing 20% over several months often leads to upward pressure on prices.
Conclusion: In summary, the Vancouver real estate market has experienced a surprising rebound in home sales, but the low inventory levels have created competitive conditions resulting in increasing home prices. The decrease in listings has contributed to a shortage of resale supply available relative to the pool of active buyers in the market. We will have to wait and see whether these price increases will be sustained into 2024. That’s all for today’s video, make sure to like and subscribe to stay up-to-date with the latest real estate news.
On April 12, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made an announcement that it would maintain the interest rates at 4.5%. This rate has been unchanged since January 2023, following several increases in the latter half of 2022. The stability of interest rates and the decreasing rate of inflation suggest that the Canadian economy may be beginning to stabilize. This stability allows newcomers to Canada to plan their budgets for large purchases and get a consistent rate of return on any guaranteed investment certificates (GICs).
However, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says that the current monetary policy needs to remain restrictive to lower the inflation rate, and it is still possible that interest rates could rise higher. It is still too early to tell. Macklem pointed out in a news conference that the benefits of the higher interest rate will not be immediately apparent, as they usually come with a delay of between 18 and 24 months after measures are implemented. This is a factor in why prices are still so high for Canadians.
The interest rate has a significant impact on the average Canadian’s ability to make substantial purchases, such as a home or a car. Although the Canadian government recently amended an act that prevented non-Canadians and permanent residents from purchasing a home in Canada, the high interest rate means that mortgage rates will remain elevated for some time. This may be a cause for concern even for those with a locked-in mortgage rate that is up for renegotiation. However, a stable interest rate means that monthly mortgage payments will remain constant and enable newcomers and Canadians to budget and plan for the future.
Macklem told reporters that the labour market has remained tight, with unemployment at 5%, but businesses are starting to find it easier to find labour due to strong population growth. Macklem credits much of the growth to employers who use the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, which helps bring in additional skilled workers and reduces the number of job vacancies. Canada’s population is aging, and the economy relies on immigration to fill gaps in the labour force, keep essential services running, and benefit from their income tax contributions.
Last November, Canada released the Immigration Levels Plan 2023-2025, which contains the highest-ever targets for new permanent resident admissions at 500,000 per year by 2025. This will help ease the pressure to find skilled employees in high-demand sectors such as healthcare, construction, and professional and scientific services. Speaking about the benefits of immigration for reducing inflation, Macklem stated that increased immigration would rebalance supply and demand. Bank of Canada predicts that inflation will fall to around 3% in the middle of this year and decrease more gradually to the 2% target by the end of 2024.
The current high interest rates can be traced back to measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, the BoC slashed interest rates to reduce the financial burden on Canadians facing hardships while many workplaces were closed. As the economy rebounded and spending increased, more demand for products and services led businesses to raise prices, contributing to the high rate of inflation. Raising interest rates curbs spending and eases demand, allowing businesses to lower their prices, and the cost of living should come down. Inflation peaked in June 2022 at 8.1% and has since lowered to 5.2% as of February.
On Tuesday November 14th, city of Vancouver has approved regulations making AirBnB rentals legal to operate within city limits. Vancouver is the first major Canadian city to regulate short-term rentals. Starting April 2018 homeowner will have to become part of city’s new regulatory regime for short-term home rentals, approved by council last week.
To become a part of cities licensing system will cost a one time activations fee of $54, plus $49 per year for the licence. All postings on AirBnB will have to include the homeowner’s licence number. If homeowners choose to operate without a licence they can face a fine of $1,000.
All income from short term rentals will have to be reported to Canadian Revenue Agency. Even if the generated income is very small. AirBnB said that they will not share personal information, and address of hosts with the CRA. But the the City of Vancouver will have its own list of names and addresses of short-term rental hosts. The city said Friday that information will be shared, upon request, with the CRA and other government agencies.
Here is in my opinion the most important and the most controversial regulation: individuals will be allowed to rent only their principal residences. Suites in basements, above garages or in coach houses can no longer be offered as short-term rentals. In other words the city of Vancouver wants homeowners to rent out their basement suites and laneway houses for long-term rental leases instead. Penalties for not complying with this regulation are still nuclear.
The city is hoping that all of the regulations for short-term rentals will create more long-term rentals for the local residents.
There are still a lot of questions to be answered about those new short-term rentals regulations and the over all success of the licensing program. I will centrally do more blog posts on the topic in the future.
