Royal LePage’s latest market forecast paints a vivid picture of Canada’s real estate landscape, predicting a significant 9% year-over-year increase in home prices by the fourth quarter of 2024. This upward revision stems from a robust first quarter, with strong price appreciation expected through the second and third quarters before tapering off towards year-end, aligning with seasonal trends.
The forecast highlights notable upgrades in major markets, particularly the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), where prices are anticipated to surge by 10%, surpassing the national average. Montreal follows closely behind with an 8.5% projected increase, while Calgary, Quebec City, and Greater Vancouver are forecasted to experience respective jumps of 8%, 8%, and 5.5%.
Royal LePage President Phil Soper attributes the current modest price rises to consumers, particularly first-time buyers, adapting to higher borrowing costs. However, he anticipates a steeper appreciation curve once the central bank enacts anticipated rate cuts, drawing in rate-focused buyers.
While easing rates will influence price upticks, the fundamental driver remains the severe housing shortage across the country. Soper warns of an intensifying seller’s market, foretelling a busy spring and fall for Canadian buyers and sellers alike.
Looking ahead, Royal LePage’s forecast suggests that by the end of 2026, the majority of mortgages will have transitioned into an elevated borrowing rate environment. Yet, this is not expected to significantly dampen the housing market’s resilience. Soper points to Canadians meeting their mortgage obligations amid record-low default rates and income growth offsetting increased mortgage costs. However, he anticipates a pullback in discretionary spending as individuals prioritize maintaining homeownership.
In summary, Royal LePage’s forecast outlines a dynamic Canadian housing market characterized by soaring prices, driven by a combination of factors including adapting consumer behavior, impending rate cuts, and the persistent housing shortage. Despite looming challenges, the market remains robust, with buyers and sellers navigating towards a seller-centric environment amidst projections of continued price appreciation.
Spring breathes new life into Metro Vancouver’s real estate scene, ushering in a wave of activity from sellers and expanding options for buyers. The latest report from Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reveals a significant surge in MLS® listings, with a remarkable uptick of nearly 23 percent compared to the previous year.
March 2024 witnessed 2,415 residential sales in the region, marking a slight dip of 4.7 percent from the same period in 2023. Despite this minor decline, the market maintains its vigor, fueled by demand for competitively priced properties in strategic locales, shifting the balance further into sellers’ favor.
Across detached, attached, and apartment segments, new listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) soared by 15.9 percent compared to March 2023, reaching a total of 5,002. Presently, the MLS® system boasts 10,552 properties for sale, indicating a substantial 22.5 percent increase from March 2023.
Analysis of the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2024 reveals a robust figure of 23.8 percent across all property types. Specifically, the ratio stands at 18.2 percent for detached homes, 31.3 percent for attached homes, and 25.8 percent for apartments. These figures underscore the pressure on home prices, with ratios below 12 percent suggesting downward trends and those surpassing 20 percent indicating upward momentum.
Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, acknowledges the market’s relative cooling compared to the previous year but notes modest month-over-month price gains, ranging from one to two percent on aggregate. While Lis anticipates potential cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in 2024, he warns that these measures may not significantly ease affordability challenges, given the enduring constraints on borrowing power.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver presently stands at $1,196,800, reflecting a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase.
Breaking down the sales data, detached home sales reached 694 in March 2024, down by 5.4 percent compared to March 2023. The benchmark price for detached homes stands at $2,007,900, up by 7.4 percent from March 2023.
Apartment home sales totaled 1,207 in March 2024, marking a 7.9 percent decrease from March 2023. The benchmark price for apartments is $777,500, showing a 5.7 percent year-over-year increase.
Attached home sales witnessed a modest increase of 6.2 percent in March 2024 compared to March 2023, totaling 495 sales. The benchmark price for townhouses rose to $1,112,800, reflecting a 5 percent increase from March 2023.
In summary, while Metro Vancouver’s real estate market experiences heightened seller activity, buyers should anticipate stiff competition, particularly for attractively priced properties in sought-after locations.
In December 2023, the Metro Vancouver residential real estate market demonstrated mixed signals, with total residential sales reaching 1,345, marking a modest 3.2% increase from the same month in 2022. However, this uptick in sales was notably below the 10-year seasonal average by a substantial 36.4%, reflecting a market that, while showing signs of recovery, still faced challenges.
New property listings, encompassing detached, attached, and apartment properties, reached 1,327 in December 2023. This represented a notable 9.9% increase compared to the listings in December 2022. Despite this increase, the figure remained 22.7% below the 10-year seasonal average of 1,716. This discrepancy between sales and new listings suggested a market with a persisting supply-demand imbalance.
Analyzing the sales-to-active listings ratio for December 2023 revealed a broader perspective on market dynamics. The overall ratio stood at 16%, indicating a delicate equilibrium between supply and demand. However, when broken down by property type, the ratios varied — 11.1% for detached homes, 18.7% for attached properties, and 19.6% for apartments. According to historical data analysis, sustained ratios below 12% typically exert downward pressure on home prices, while ratios exceeding 20% over several months often lead to upward price pressure.
Detached home sales in December 2023 reached 376, representing a modest 1.3% increase from December 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home was $1,964,400, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the previous year. However, compared to November 2023, there was a slight 0.9% decrease in the benchmark price, suggesting a nuanced pricing trend.
Sales of apartment homes in December 2023 reached 719, a 2.4% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home was $751,300, indicating a 5.6% increase from the previous year. However, there was a 1.5% decrease in the benchmark price compared to November 2023, highlighting potential month-to-month volatility.
Attached home sales in December 2023 totaled 238, marking a more substantial 7.2% increase compared to December 2022. The benchmark price for a townhouse was $1,072,700, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous year. The performance of attached homes hinted at a segment of the market that was experiencing relative strength.
The data painted a nuanced picture of the Metro Vancouver real estate market at the close of 2023. While there was a year-over-year increase in residential sales, the figures remained notably below the 10-year seasonal averages, indicating persistent challenges. The sales-to-active listings ratio provided insights into the delicate balance between supply and demand, with potential implications for future price trends.
In conclusion, the market dynamics in Metro Vancouver at the end of 2023 reflected a landscape in transition. A careful analysis of sales, new listings, and price benchmarks highlighted both positive and challenging aspects, underscoring the complexity of the real estate ecosystem in the region.
The Metro Vancouver housing market remained steady in October 2023, as indicated by an increase in newly listed properties providing more options for homebuyers. However, despite this rise in listings, sales figures continued to lag behind long-term averages, reflecting a somewhat subdued demand. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 1,996 residential sales for the month, marking a 3.7 percent increase from October 2022, yet still 29.5 percent below the 10-year seasonal average.
The surge in newly listed properties, which was about 15.4 percent higher compared to the previous year, contributed to a total of 11,599 properties currently listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system, representing a 12.6 percent increase from October 2022. Despite this rise, the sales-to-active listings ratio stood at 17.9 percent across all property types. By property type, the ratio was 12.9 percent for detached homes, 20.9 percent for attached homes, and 21.5 percent for apartments.
Market analysis indicated that the overall shift towards more balanced conditions was particularly noticeable in the multifamily segment, which remained more active than the detached segment. The real estate market experienced a relative balance between supply and demand, which restrained significant price fluctuations. While borrowing costs remained high, housing affordability was somewhat alleviated by the stabilization of prices, thus maintaining the purchasing power of buyers in the market.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,196,500, marking a 4.4 percent increase from October 2022. However, there was a slight 0.6 percent decrease compared to September 2023. Detached homes recorded 577 sales in October 2023, with a benchmark price of $2,001,400, representing a 5.8 percent increase from the previous year but a 0.8 percent decrease compared to the previous month.
Apartment home sales saw a rise of 4.9 percent, reaching 1,044 in October 2023, with the benchmark price for an apartment home at $770,200, reflecting a 6.4 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month. Attached home sales totaled 356, showing a 6.6 percent increase from October 2022, with the benchmark price for a townhouse at $1,100,500, indicating a 6 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month.
Overall, the market’s balanced conditions, driven by increased inventory and moderate demand, resulted in a relatively stable housing market in Metro Vancouver. Despite persistent challenges related to borrowing costs and affordability, the market remained resilient, offering some relief to prospective buyers with stabilized prices.
In the dynamic real estate landscape of Metro Vancouver, the month of July 2023 witnessed yet another upswing in home prices across all types of properties, fuelled by a robust sales surge. This ongoing trend of price escalation is being driven by a formidable combination of vigorous sales figures and a persistently low housing inventory within the region.
According to the latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the total number of residential home sales in the area reached an impressive 2,455 in July 2023. This marked a substantial increase of 28.9 percent compared to the 1,904 sales recorded during the same period in 2022. It’s noteworthy that these figures remained about 15.6 percent below the ten-year seasonal average of 2,909 sales.
Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at REBGV, emphasized the significance of the year-over-year sales increase, even if it still lags behind the ten-year average. He explained that this substantial improvement is partly attributed to the market’s response to the previous year’s scenario when the Bank of Canada took many by surprise with a sizeable one percent increase in the policy rate. This move had momentarily chilled the market activity by catching both buyers and sellers off guard.
The supply side of the equation also saw notable developments. In July 2023, there were 4,649 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver. This figure marked a significant 17 percent increase compared to the 3,975 homes listed in July 2022, although it still remained 5.2 percent below the 10-year seasonal average of 4,902 listings.
Presently, the total number of homes listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver stands at 10,301, reflecting a four percent decrease when contrasted with the figures from July 2022 (10,734). Moreover, this number was about 14.4 percent lower than the ten-year seasonal average of 12,039 listings.
An insightful metric for evaluating the balance between supply and demand is the sales-to-active listings ratio. For July 2023, this ratio stood at 24.9 percent when considering all property types combined. However, when analyzed by property type, the ratios were 16.5 percent for detached homes, 32 percent for townhomes, and 30.6 percent for apartments. Historical analysis suggests that home prices typically experience downward pressure when the ratio remains below 12 percent consistently. Conversely, when the ratio surpasses 20 percent over several months, it tends to exert upward pressure on home prices.
One intriguing aspect of the current market environment is the contrast between the Bank of Canada’s modest rate hike of a quarter of a percent in July and the highest mortgage rates witnessed in Canada in over a decade. Despite this, sales activity managed to outpace last year’s levels, indicating not only the robust demand in the market but also buyers’ ability to adapt and qualify for higher borrowing costs.
In terms of specific property types, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,210,700. This signifies a marginal 0.5 percent increase over July 2022 and a similarly modest 0.6 percent increase when compared to June 2023.
Delving deeper, the sales of detached homes in July 2023 numbered 681, an impressive 28.7 percent upswing from the 529 detached sales recorded in July 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home reached $2,012,900, reflecting a 0.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 1.1 percent rise compared to June 2023.
Similarly, apartment home sales witnessed a significant surge, totaling 1,281 in July 2023. This marked a substantial 20.7 percent increase when compared to the 1,061 sales of July 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home climbed to $771,600, demonstrating a noteworthy 2.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.6 percent uptick from June 2023.
Attached homes, too, experienced a notable upswing in sales, with July 2023 witnessing 466 sales compared to 304 in July 2022. This surge of 53.3 percent is substantial and contributed to the benchmark price for an attached home reaching $1,104,600. This marks a 1.2 percent increase from July 2022 and a 0.5 percent rise compared to June 2023.
All in all, the real estate landscape in Metro Vancouver continues to be shaped by a dynamic interplay of strong sales activity, constrained inventory levels, and the ability of buyers to adapt to changing market conditions, including higher borrowing costs. While the ten-year average remains a reference point, the current market’s resilience underscores the enduring demand for housing in the region, driving incremental increases in property prices across various segments.
Metro Vancouver’s housing market is witnessing a continued surge in home prices as the summer season commences. The limited availability of homes for sale in the region is causing a clash with the high demand from prospective buyers, leading to further price hikes.
According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), residential home sales in June 2023 reached 2,988, indicating a significant 21.1 percent increase compared to June 2022’s 2,467 sales. However, despite this growth, the figure fell short by 8.6 percent of the ten-year seasonal average of 3,269.
Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at REBGV, noted that the market has exceeded expectations in all segments, with apartments exhibiting the strongest performance in June. Lis stated that the benchmark price of apartment homes is nearly reaching the peak recorded in 2022, and apartment sales have surpassed the region’s ten-year seasonal average. In contrast, sales of attached and detached homes remained below the seasonal averages.
In June 2023, there were 5,348 newly listed detached, attached, and apartment properties for sale in Metro Vancouver, reflecting a slight 1.3 percent increase compared to June 2022’s 5,278 listings. However, this number fell 3.1 percent short of the ten-year seasonal average of 5,518.
Currently, there are 9,990 homes listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in Metro Vancouver, indicating a 7.9 percent decrease compared to June 2022’s 10,842 listings. This figure is 17.4 percent lower than the ten-year seasonal average of 12,091.
The sales-to-active listings ratio for June 2023 stands at 31.4 percent for all property types, while the ratio is 20.9 percent for detached homes, 38.5 percent for townhomes, and 39.4 percent for apartments. Historical data suggests that when the ratio remains below 12 percent for a sustained period, home prices tend to experience downward pressure, while a ratio surpassing 20 percent for several months often leads to upward pressure on prices.
Andrew Lis highlighted that despite higher borrowing costs, the lack of resale inventory relative to the pool of buyers in Metro Vancouver continues to drive prices up across all segments. Lis called upon the provincial government to adjust the Property Transfer Tax’s threshold, which exempts first-time home buyers, to better align with the price of entry-level homes in the region. Such a policy adjustment could enable more first-time buyers to afford a home.
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver currently stands at $1,203,000. This represents a 2.4 percent decrease from June 2022 but a 1.3 percent increase compared to May 2023.
Sales of detached homes in June 2023 amounted to 848, reflecting a substantial 28.3 percent increase compared to the 661 sales recorded in June 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,991,300, representing a 3.2 percent decrease from June 2022 but a 1.9 percent increase compared to May 2023.
Apartment home sales reached 1,573 in June 2023, marking an 18.6 percent increase compared to the 1,326 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home is $767,000, indicating a 0.5 percent increase from June 2022 and a 0.8 percent increase compared to May 2023.
Sales of attached homes in June 2023 totaled 547, signifying a 17.6 percent increase compared to the 465 sales in June 2022. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,098,900, representing a one percent decrease from June 2022 but a 1.5 percent increase compared to May 2023.
The real estate market is currently experiencing a shortage of available inventory, which is causing a decline in seller interest in listing their properties. This is primarily due to the increase in borrowing costs, which has made it difficult for sellers to qualify for the same mortgage amount as in the past. Additionally, the stress test, which determines whether borrowers can afford mortgage payments at higher interest rates, has contributed to the decrease in inventory.
As a result of the lack of available inventory, there has been a slight increase in prices, and multiple offers are becoming more common. Many buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are now ready to enter the market, but there are not enough properties to meet the demand. While statistics may not paint the full picture, current indicators suggest that prices are unlikely to decrease and may even continue to rise slightly, which is worth noting for potential buyers.
In addition to the limited inventory in the real estate market, the rental market is also strong, particularly in Vancouver, which remains the most expensive city in Canada to rent. The average cost of a one-bedroom unit in Vancouver is $2640, while a two-bedroom unit costs $3632. Burnaby also ranks as the third most expensive city in Canada for rent, with one-bedroom units costing $2282 and two-bedroom units costing $3175.
This strong rental market can be attributed to the shortage of available properties for rent, causing demand to exceed supply, resulting in a competitive rental market. Landlords have the upper hand, and tenants often must pay a higher price for a desirable rental property. While this may not be ideal for renters, it does present opportunities for investors looking to purchase and rent out properties in these cities.
Overall, the current state of the real estate market is due to a combination of factors, including the rise in borrowing costs, the stress test, and the lack of available properties for rent. While this has led to a slight increase in prices, it is unlikely to be a dramatic change. However, those looking to buy or rent in Vancouver or Burnaby should be aware of the current state of the market and the high associated costs.
Over the past year, interest rates have surged significantly, and the average 5-year variable rate is now around 6.45%. In comparison, just a year ago, the rate was at 1.6%. The increase in interest rates has led to a considerable increase in monthly mortgage payments, where on a $400,000 mortgage, the payment has increased from $1,617 to around $2,667. As a result, the real estate market has been slowed down considerably.
In January 2023, the real estate market witnessed 55.3% fewer transactions compared to January 2022. The market was so slow that it was 42.9% slower than the ten-year average for January, which is typically a slow month for real estate transactions. The increase in interest rates has led to a considerable rise in monthly mortgage payments, making it challenging for buyers to afford new properties.
Despite the market slowdown, prices have not dropped as much as anticipated. Detached houses have seen a 9.1% decrease from January 2022, while apartments have only decreased by 1.1% since last year. More surprisingly, apartments have gone up by 1% in the last month, and there are differing opinions on what may have caused this phenomenon.
Rentals.ca reports that Vancouver remains the most expensive city in Canada for rent. The average cost of a one-bedroom unit is $2596 per month, and a two-bedroom unit rents for an average of $3562. Given these high rental prices, it is unsurprising that many people prefer to invest in the real estate market, despite the high interest rates.
Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada may be ready to pause further interest rate increases. If this happens, and the interest rate stabilizes, we might see a lot of activity in the real estate market in the spring. As a result, if you have been considering purchasing a property, this could be a good time to make a move.
In conclusion, the rise in interest rates has had a significant impact on the real estate market, slowing it down considerably. Nevertheless, it is not clear whether this trend will continue, and the market may pick up in the coming months. As a result, it is crucial to keep a close eye on the market and make informed decisions before making any significant purchases.
Let’s talk about the new September market statistics and what we can learn from them.
The market is much slower than usual at the moment. There are fewer sales across the board. About a 35% drop in over all transactions as compared to 10 year average. This is a fairly significant slow down.
Think about how much more real estate has been built over the last 10 years. Right now there are fewer sales even though the total number of real estate units is constantly increasing.
How significant this impact is depends on the type of real estate we look at and the price point.
For example detached houses have a sales to active listings ratio of about 12%.Meaning 12 out of every 100 houses available were sold in September. As far as apartments go the situation is a quite a bit different a sales to active listings ratio is about 21%. Which is almost double of that of the detached properties.
I think the evidence of this in my everyday work. 1 bedroom and studio units are still selling well. The demand and the prices did come down a bit but there is still a health amount of buyer activity for those starter homes. From personal experience I find the there aren’t as many speculative investors in the market right now. However buyers looking for a place to live are still active in this 1 bedroom and studio units category.
If you are looking to sell your 1 bedroom or a studio unit are likely to receive a healthy amount of interest.
The same can not be said for detached properties. Especially luxury market. From my experience the demand is not there and those properties take much longer to sell.
As far the prices are concern there is a drop. The board is reporting about a 2% price drop from August. I think that’s about in-line with my experience.
The primary cause of this market slow down and the price decrease are of course higher interest rates. Bank of Canada did once again raise their benchmark interest rate in September which definitely slows down the market.
Buyers aren’t able to borrow as much money as the stress test rate at the moment is ridiculously high. All of this creates quite a bit uncertainty for the future.
If you’re a seller my advice to be patient. And be realistic with your prices.
If you’re a buyer be ready. Have all of your down payment and pre-approval ready. Good opportunities to pop-up on the market. But they also disappear just as quickly. You want to put yourself in a position to take advantage of such opportunities.
I hope you will find this video helpful. Feel free to share this video with anyone who you think will find it useful.
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