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Deep Dive: Metro Vancouver Real Estate Market Unraveled – Must-Watch Analysis! April 2024

Oleg Articles, First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, Statistics, Videos 0 Comment

Spring breathes new life into Metro Vancouver’s real estate scene, ushering in a wave of activity from sellers and expanding options for buyers. The latest report from Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reveals a significant surge in MLS® listings, with a remarkable uptick of nearly 23 percent compared to the previous year.

March 2024 witnessed 2,415 residential sales in the region, marking a slight dip of 4.7 percent from the same period in 2023. Despite this minor decline, the market maintains its vigor, fueled by demand for competitively priced properties in strategic locales, shifting the balance further into sellers’ favor.

Across detached, attached, and apartment segments, new listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) soared by 15.9 percent compared to March 2023, reaching a total of 5,002. Presently, the MLS® system boasts 10,552 properties for sale, indicating a substantial 22.5 percent increase from March 2023.

Analysis of the sales-to-active listings ratio for March 2024 reveals a robust figure of 23.8 percent across all property types. Specifically, the ratio stands at 18.2 percent for detached homes, 31.3 percent for attached homes, and 25.8 percent for apartments. These figures underscore the pressure on home prices, with ratios below 12 percent suggesting downward trends and those surpassing 20 percent indicating upward momentum.

Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics, acknowledges the market’s relative cooling compared to the previous year but notes modest month-over-month price gains, ranging from one to two percent on aggregate. While Lis anticipates potential cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate in 2024, he warns that these measures may not significantly ease affordability challenges, given the enduring constraints on borrowing power.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver presently stands at $1,196,800, reflecting a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase.

Breaking down the sales data, detached home sales reached 694 in March 2024, down by 5.4 percent compared to March 2023. The benchmark price for detached homes stands at $2,007,900, up by 7.4 percent from March 2023.

Apartment home sales totaled 1,207 in March 2024, marking a 7.9 percent decrease from March 2023. The benchmark price for apartments is $777,500, showing a 5.7 percent year-over-year increase.

Attached home sales witnessed a modest increase of 6.2 percent in March 2024 compared to March 2023, totaling 495 sales. The benchmark price for townhouses rose to $1,112,800, reflecting a 5 percent increase from March 2023.

In summary, while Metro Vancouver’s real estate market experiences heightened seller activity, buyers should anticipate stiff competition, particularly for attractively priced properties in sought-after locations.

Here is what you need to know about the new “flipping tax” in British Columbia

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New Home Flipping Tax to Hit B.C. Property Sales: Here’s What You Should Know

Premier David Eby has set his sights on speculators, and with the unveiling of the 2024 budget, his government has introduced the “BC Home Flipping Tax” aimed at curbing speculative activity in the housing market.

Effective January 1, the new tax mandates that any profits accrued from the sale of a residential property within two years of its purchase will be subject to taxation, albeit with certain exceptions.

Outlined in the forthcoming legislation to be passed during the spring session, the tax will follow a progressive scale: 20 percent on profits from homes sold within the initial year, gradually decreasing to 10 percent if sold within 18 months, and ultimately dropping to zero after two years of ownership.

According to the Ministry of Finance, this tax measure is anticipated to generate approximately $43 million in annual tax revenue.

“The tax will be applicable to income derived from the sale of properties with a housing unit and those zoned for residential use. It will also extend to income generated from the assignment of contracts related to the purchase of these properties,” states the Budget and Fiscal Plan.

However, exemptions will be granted for individuals selling their primary residence within two years of acquisition, with a maximum exclusion of $20,000 when calculating taxable income.

Exceptions for circumstances such as divorce, death, illness, and work-related relocation will also be considered to waive the tax liability. Details regarding the appeals process and required documentation are yet to be finalized, with tax administrators expected to develop forms and guidelines between now and January.

The revenue collected from this tax will be earmarked for the construction of new affordable housing units across the province, aligning with the government’s objective to bolster housing supply.

Set to take effect on January 1, 2025, the tax will be applicable to properties sold after this date, regardless of the purchase date.

In addition to the new tax, the B.C. budget confirms substantial investments in housing initiatives, including programs like BC Builds. The budget also offers a comprehensive analysis of the housing market’s current state and future trajectory.

Despite challenges such as declining building permits, growing unsold inventory in certain regions, and inter-provincial migration losses, the ministry anticipates a rebound in home sales activity in 2024. Prices are projected to increase by an average of 2.3 percent in the current year and 2.9 percent in 2025, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the real estate market.

 

Everything you need to know about Vancouver real estate market in August 2023

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, News, Statistics

 

In the dynamic real estate landscape of Metro Vancouver, the month of July 2023 witnessed yet another upswing in home prices across all types of properties, fuelled by a robust sales surge. This ongoing trend of price escalation is being driven by a formidable combination of vigorous sales figures and a persistently low housing inventory within the region.

According to the latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the total number of residential home sales in the area reached an impressive 2,455 in July 2023. This marked a substantial increase of 28.9 percent compared to the 1,904 sales recorded during the same period in 2022. It’s noteworthy that these figures remained about 15.6 percent below the ten-year seasonal average of 2,909 sales.

Andrew Lis, the director of economics and data analytics at REBGV, emphasized the significance of the year-over-year sales increase, even if it still lags behind the ten-year average. He explained that this substantial improvement is partly attributed to the market’s response to the previous year’s scenario when the Bank of Canada took many by surprise with a sizeable one percent increase in the policy rate. This move had momentarily chilled the market activity by catching both buyers and sellers off guard.

The supply side of the equation also saw notable developments. In July 2023, there were 4,649 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver. This figure marked a significant 17 percent increase compared to the 3,975 homes listed in July 2022, although it still remained 5.2 percent below the 10-year seasonal average of 4,902 listings.

Presently, the total number of homes listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver stands at 10,301, reflecting a four percent decrease when contrasted with the figures from July 2022 (10,734). Moreover, this number was about 14.4 percent lower than the ten-year seasonal average of 12,039 listings.

An insightful metric for evaluating the balance between supply and demand is the sales-to-active listings ratio. For July 2023, this ratio stood at 24.9 percent when considering all property types combined. However, when analyzed by property type, the ratios were 16.5 percent for detached homes, 32 percent for townhomes, and 30.6 percent for apartments. Historical analysis suggests that home prices typically experience downward pressure when the ratio remains below 12 percent consistently. Conversely, when the ratio surpasses 20 percent over several months, it tends to exert upward pressure on home prices.

One intriguing aspect of the current market environment is the contrast between the Bank of Canada’s modest rate hike of a quarter of a percent in July and the highest mortgage rates witnessed in Canada in over a decade. Despite this, sales activity managed to outpace last year’s levels, indicating not only the robust demand in the market but also buyers’ ability to adapt and qualify for higher borrowing costs.

In terms of specific property types, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver reached $1,210,700. This signifies a marginal 0.5 percent increase over July 2022 and a similarly modest 0.6 percent increase when compared to June 2023.

Delving deeper, the sales of detached homes in July 2023 numbered 681, an impressive 28.7 percent upswing from the 529 detached sales recorded in July 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home reached $2,012,900, reflecting a 0.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 1.1 percent rise compared to June 2023.

Similarly, apartment home sales witnessed a significant surge, totaling 1,281 in July 2023. This marked a substantial 20.7 percent increase when compared to the 1,061 sales of July 2022. The benchmark price for an apartment home climbed to $771,600, demonstrating a noteworthy 2.6 percent increase from the previous year and a 0.6 percent uptick from June 2023.

Attached homes, too, experienced a notable upswing in sales, with July 2023 witnessing 466 sales compared to 304 in July 2022. This surge of 53.3 percent is substantial and contributed to the benchmark price for an attached home reaching $1,104,600. This marks a 1.2 percent increase from July 2022 and a 0.5 percent rise compared to June 2023.

All in all, the real estate landscape in Metro Vancouver continues to be shaped by a dynamic interplay of strong sales activity, constrained inventory levels, and the ability of buyers to adapt to changing market conditions, including higher borrowing costs. While the ten-year average remains a reference point, the current market’s resilience underscores the enduring demand for housing in the region, driving incremental increases in property prices across various segments.

3 strategies smart investors use to win in a slower real estate market in Vancouver

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, For Sellers, Opinion, Tips


The Greater Vancouver real estate market has been experiencing a slowdown in recent times. However, experienced investors understand that a slower market presents unique opportunities that can be harnessed for greater returns. Here are three ways smart real estate investors take advantage of a slower real estate market in Greater Vancouver:

  1. Upsizing:

One way smart real estate investors take advantage of a slower market is by upsizing their real estate portfolio. In a slow market, the more expensive properties tend to drop in price more, which presents a perfect opportunity for investors to acquire larger and more valuable properties. For instance, an investor who wants to move from a condo to a single-family home can leverage the slowdown to acquire a bigger and more luxurious property at a lower price than would be possible in a hot market.

The key is to identify properties that are likely to retain their value in the long term. This means focusing on properties with excellent location, good amenities, and good resale potential. An experienced real estate agent can help investors identify such properties and guide them through the upsizing process.

  1. Buying pre-sale properties from developers:

Another way smart real estate investors take advantage of a slower market is by buying pre-sale properties from developers. During a slow market, developers are often eager to move their inventory and may offer attractive incentives to buyers. In addition, interest rates are expected to go down in the future, which makes buying pre-sale properties an even more attractive option.

Investors can leverage this opportunity by identifying pre-sale properties with excellent potential for capital appreciation. This means focusing on properties in areas with good growth potential, excellent amenities, and strong demand. Additionally, investors should work with reputable developers with a track record of delivering quality properties on time.

  1. Buying long-term investment properties:

A slower real estate market presents a perfect opportunity for investors to acquire long-term investment properties. The rental market in Greater Vancouver is still very strong, which means that investors can acquire properties and generate steady rental income over the long term.

Smart investors focus on properties that have good rental potential, such as those in areas with high demand, excellent amenities, and good transportation links. Additionally, investors should focus on properties with good long-term growth potential, such as those in areas with strong job growth and population growth.

Investors should also consider the potential for future development, such as adding additional rental units to the property or converting the property to other uses. This can help to increase the property’s value over time and generate even greater returns.

In conclusion, a slower real estate market in Greater Vancouver presents unique opportunities for smart real estate investors. By upsizing their portfolio, buying pre-sale properties from developers, and acquiring long-term investment properties, investors can take advantage of the slowdown to generate greater returns over the long term. However, it’s important to work with experienced real estate professionals who can help identify the best opportunities and guide investors through the process of acquiring and managing real estate assets.

Bank of Canada decided NOT to raise the interest rates in April 2023

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On April 12, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made an announcement that it would maintain the interest rates at 4.5%. This rate has been unchanged since January 2023, following several increases in the latter half of 2022. The stability of interest rates and the decreasing rate of inflation suggest that the Canadian economy may be beginning to stabilize. This stability allows newcomers to Canada to plan their budgets for large purchases and get a consistent rate of return on any guaranteed investment certificates (GICs).

However, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says that the current monetary policy needs to remain restrictive to lower the inflation rate, and it is still possible that interest rates could rise higher. It is still too early to tell. Macklem pointed out in a news conference that the benefits of the higher interest rate will not be immediately apparent, as they usually come with a delay of between 18 and 24 months after measures are implemented. This is a factor in why prices are still so high for Canadians.

The interest rate has a significant impact on the average Canadian’s ability to make substantial purchases, such as a home or a car. Although the Canadian government recently amended an act that prevented non-Canadians and permanent residents from purchasing a home in Canada, the high interest rate means that mortgage rates will remain elevated for some time. This may be a cause for concern even for those with a locked-in mortgage rate that is up for renegotiation. However, a stable interest rate means that monthly mortgage payments will remain constant and enable newcomers and Canadians to budget and plan for the future.

Macklem told reporters that the labour market has remained tight, with unemployment at 5%, but businesses are starting to find it easier to find labour due to strong population growth. Macklem credits much of the growth to employers who use the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, which helps bring in additional skilled workers and reduces the number of job vacancies. Canada’s population is aging, and the economy relies on immigration to fill gaps in the labour force, keep essential services running, and benefit from their income tax contributions.

Last November, Canada released the Immigration Levels Plan 2023-2025, which contains the highest-ever targets for new permanent resident admissions at 500,000 per year by 2025. This will help ease the pressure to find skilled employees in high-demand sectors such as healthcare, construction, and professional and scientific services. Speaking about the benefits of immigration for reducing inflation, Macklem stated that increased immigration would rebalance supply and demand. Bank of Canada predicts that inflation will fall to around 3% in the middle of this year and decrease more gradually to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

The current high interest rates can be traced back to measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, the BoC slashed interest rates to reduce the financial burden on Canadians facing hardships while many workplaces were closed. As the economy rebounded and spending increased, more demand for products and services led businesses to raise prices, contributing to the high rate of inflation. Raising interest rates curbs spending and eases demand, allowing businesses to lower their prices, and the cost of living should come down. Inflation peaked in June 2022 at 8.1% and has since lowered to 5.2% as of February.

3 ways to make money in the current slow real estate market in Vancouver.

Oleg Articles, For Buyers, For Sellers, Tips

The Vancouver real estate market has been experiencing a slowdown in recent years due to high interest rates. However, smart investors are taking advantage of these conditions to make strategic investments and maximize their returns. In this article, we’ll explore three ways that smart investors are taking advantage of the slow Vancouver real estate market conditions due to high interest rates.

  1. Buying pre-sale properties

One way smart investors can take advantage of the slow Vancouver real estate market conditions due to high interest rates is by purchasing pre-sale properties. Developers are often willing to offer pre-sale properties at a discounted rate during slow market conditions, which can provide an opportunity for investors to secure a property at a lower price.

By purchasing a pre-sale property, investors are also hopping for a lower interest rate in future. This can be particularly advantageous during a slow market when interest rates are high, making it difficult to qualify for a mortgage or afford a mortgage payment.

Investors should be aware of the risks associated with pre-sale properties, including potential delays in construction or changes in the real estate market. Thorough research and due diligence are essential before making a pre-sale property investment.

  1. Upsizing

Another strategy smart investors are using in the slow Vancouver real estate market conditions. By purchasing a larger property and selling their smaller one, investors can take advantage of the equity built in the current property as well as lower prices on the bigger property.

For example, you own a townhouse and would like to upgrade to a house. On average detached properties in Vancouver have seen a bigger depreciation as opposed to townhomes. If you were thinking of upsizing already then upsizing in the slow market can be a great opportunity to do so.

Investors should carefully consider the costs associated with upsizing, such as higher property taxes, property transfer taxes, maintenance costs, and potential renovation expenses. Thorough research and due diligence are essential before making an upsizing investment.

  1. Rental properties for long-term investment

Finally, smart investors are taking advantage of the slow Vancouver real estate market conditions due to high interest rates by investing in rental properties for long-term investment. High interest rates can make it difficult for some people to qualify for a mortgage, leading to increased demand for rental properties.

By purchasing a rental property in a slow market, investors can take advantage of lower property prices and potentially higher rental income. Over time, as interest rates decrease and property values increase, investors can realize significant profits from their rental property investment.

Investors should be aware of the risks associated with rental properties, including maintenance costs, tenant turnover, and potential vacancies. Hiring a property manager to handle day-to-day management tasks can help to mitigate some of these risks.

In conclusion, the slow Vancouver real estate market conditions due to high interest rates are providing opportunities for smart investors to make strategic investments and maximize their returns. By purchasing pre-sale properties, upsizing their properties, or investing in rental properties for long-term investment, investors can build long-term wealth. However, as with any investment, thorough research and due diligence are essential to avoid potential pitfalls. Working with a knowledgeable investment advisor can help to ensure that investors make informed decisions and maximize their returns in the slow Vancouver real estate market conditions.

More rent increases for Vancouver in the near future

Oleg Articles, Opinion, Videos

We have seen countless number of news stories about unaffordable rental rates in Metro Vancouver. It’s a hot subject in the media and with local politicians. The rent has been steadily increasing for a long time. But it seems that in the last coupe of years it has really “shot up”.

Local residents don’t know how to deal with such rent increases. There even is a tenants union that has been created back in April of 2017.

City of Vancouver is trying to deal with a problem by passing a foreign buyers tax, a vacant home tax and regulations for short-term rentals. Last week the city has released their 10 year housing strategy. The new strategy will encourage developers to build more rental suites within their “for sale” buildings. It will also promoted more co-ops and affordable living units. Many critics says the new strategy is not aggressive enough. But it’s a good start.

In my opinion, the rental rate increases we’ve seen in the last 4-5 years are not the end of it. CBC news wrote an article about the rent increases in the last 5 years. This article also includes census of rental increase by a neighbourhood in Metro Vancouver from 2011 to 2016. Most neighbourhoods went up in rent by 30-50%. That’s a big increase in only 5 years. Full article: here.

Condo prices in the last 12 months in most Metro Vancouver neighbourhoods have gone up by 30-45%. These price increases will have upward pressure on the rental market. I think we are going to see huge rental rate increase in the next 24-48 months and beyond. And the real estate condo market is not showing any signs of slowing down in the near future.

I would not be surprises to see 50-60% increase in rental rates in Metro Vancouver over the next 3 years. Especially since we are currently at close to zero vacancy rate.

All of the proposed and implemented changes and taxes are a good steps but they are too late. The city is reacting to the huge price increases that already took place. The bottom line is that huge rental rate increases are not over. Even if the real estate market prices don’t increase any more, we will still see an increase in the rental rates as a reaction to the condo market price increases that already took place.

What you need to know about the new AirBnB regulations in Vancouver BC

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On Tuesday November 14th, city of Vancouver has approved regulations making AirBnB rentals legal to operate within city limits. Vancouver is the first major Canadian city to regulate short-term rentals. Starting April 2018 homeowner will have to become part of city’s new regulatory regime for short-term home rentals, approved by council last week.

To become a part of cities licensing system will cost a one time activations fee of $54, plus $49 per year for the licence. All postings on AirBnB will have to include the homeowner’s licence number. If homeowners choose to operate without a licence they can face a fine of $1,000.

All income from short term rentals will have to be reported to Canadian Revenue Agency. Even if the generated income is very small. AirBnB said that they will not share personal information, and address of hosts with the CRA. But the the City of Vancouver will have its own list of names and addresses of short-term rental hosts. The city said Friday that information will be shared, upon request, with the CRA and other government agencies.

Here is in my opinion the most important and the most controversial regulation: individuals will be allowed to rent only their principal residences. Suites in basements, above garages or in coach houses can no longer be offered as short-term rentals.  In other words the city of Vancouver wants homeowners to rent out their basement suites and laneway houses for long-term rental leases instead. Penalties for not complying with this regulation are still nuclear.

The city is hoping that all of the regulations for short-term rentals will create more long-term rentals for the local residents.

There are still a lot of questions to be answered about those new short-term rentals regulations and the over all success of the licensing program. I will centrally do more blog posts on the topic in the future.

Burnaby Housing Market Real Estate Update – June 2017

Oleg Articles, First time buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Market update, News, Statistics

burnaby housing market update

Here is a real estate update of Burnaby housing market for June 2017. We will look at detached market only. Condos and townhouses have their own market update in a separate blog post. We will only look at resale homes (no new construction).

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price of detached house in Burnaby in June 2017 (see graph below)

Burnaby East: $1,634,000 | +12.6% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby North: $1,737,458 | -3.6% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby South: $1,846,264 | +4.6% (change since June 2016)

Average Percent of Original Asking Price

Average Percent of Original Price of houses in Burnaby in June 2017 (see graph below)

Burnaby East: 99.6% | -3.2% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby North: 97.3% | -3.4% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby South: 98.8% | -5.4% (change since June 2016)

Total Inventory

Total inventory of detached houses in Burnaby in June 2017 (see graph below)

Burnaby East: 58 | 0.0% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby North: 177 | +13.5% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby South: 224 | +15.5% (change since June 2016)

New Listings

Total number of New Listings of detached houses in Burnaby in June 2017 (see graph below)

Burnaby East: 28 | -15.2% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby North: 101 | +6.3% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby South: 107 | 0.0% (change since June 2016)

Sales

Total Sales of detached houses in Burnaby in June 2017 (see graph below)

Burnaby East:  9 | -55.0% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby North: 43 | -8.5% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby South: 46 | -8.0% (change since June 2016)

Sales to Active Listings Ratio

Sales to Active Listings Ratio of detached houses in Burnaby in June 2017 (see graph below)

Burnaby East:  0.155 | -55.1% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby North: 0.243 | -19.3% (change since June 2016)

Burnaby South: 0.205 | -20.5% (change since June 2016)

In conclusion, Burnaby detached housing market is a little slower than it was at this time last year. Average sale price prices remain strong. Average sale price of detached houses in Burnaby East is at it’s all time high. We see healthy inventory levels in all the Burnaby areas. Total number of sales is about the same as June 2016.  Based on the Sales to Active Listings Ration all three Burnaby areas are in a balanced market with a slight favourability of sellers.

CMHC Mortgage Insurance Rates Are Going UP This Spring

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interest rate increase

On January 17th 2017, CMHC mortgage insurance agency announced that their mortgage insurance premiums will be increasing starting March 17, 2017.

Over the past 2 years we have seen a number of changes to the mortgage borrowing regulations.  This CMHC insurance premiums increase is another change to mortgage borrowing process and rules.

According to the CMHC agency an average increase in premiums for the homeowners will be insignificant. Roughly $5 per months increase on average.

However, this increase will vary significantly depending on the mortgage amount. Home-buyers who have a $250,000 mortgage will see a $4.70 per month increase.  Average Canadian insured mortgage is about $245,000. The monthly increase in premiums on mortgages of $150,000 will be $2.82.

In Greater Vancouver, home-buyers are very likely to see higher average payment increases, as the average mortgage in the region is above that of the Canadian average. The CMHC said that the increase on loans of $450,000 would be $8.47 per month, and nearly $16 for those with insured mortgages of $850,000.

cmhc premiums increase chart 2017

Roughly two-thirds of home-buyers with a CMHC-insured mortgage have down-payments of less than ten per cent. For most new home-buyers the monthly payment increase will be “negligible,” said Steven Mennill, CMHC’s senior vice-president of insurance.

Steven Mennill said, “We do not expect the higher premiums to have a significant impact on the ability of Canadians to buy a home. Overall, the changes will preserve competition in the mortgage loan insurance industry and contribute to financial stability.”

The CMHC’s statement said, “Capital requirements are an important factor in determining mortgage insurance premiums. The changes reflect OSFI’s new capital requirements that came into effect on January 1 of this year that require mortgage insurers to hold additional capital. Capital holdings create a buffer against potential losses, helping to ensure the long term stability of the financial system.”

From my experience this increase in the CMHC insurance premiums should not have any significant impact on the Metro Vancouver real estate market. I think that first-time home-buyers are the ones who most likely be effected by these CMCH premiums increase.